About Rod David
I developed analytical techniques that identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame, primarily for analyzing S&Ps. I have been published or quoted in MarketWatch, Minyanville, CNBC, The New York Times, Trader Daily, Futures Magazine, and Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, among others...
I developed analytical techniques that are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. I primarily apply my technique to analyzing S&Ps, generating several round-turn candidates daily. The methodologies are also applied to other high-profile futures markets to generate an opinion and to identify specific actionable parameters.
I publish my setups intraday on a blog at IfThenSignals.com, where I also host a live "charting room" webinar to graphically depict my patterns and targets in real-time.
Previously I was a Contributing Editor for optionMONSTER where I produced the Index Trader blog, providing intraday timing signals and targets in S&Ps and other futures markets. Prior to that, I founded AvidTrader.com in 1995, one of the original technical analysis web sites. Through AvidTrader, I launched the web's first free-access trader's chatroom in 1996 for technical analysis newcomers and experts from around the world to mingle throughout the trading day.
Through the chat forum, I produced and hosted an ongoing series of live interviews with many well-known chartists and technicians. My guests included John Bollinger who created Bollinger Bands, Gerald Appel, creator of MACD, Marc Chaikin who created the original Money Flow indicator, George Lane, creator of the Stochastic indicator, and Tom DeMark who is best known for his TD Sequential indicator. Other notable interviewees were John Murphy, Bill Williams, Peter Eliades, Linda Raschke, Van Tharp, Glenn Neely and Arch Crawford.
My analysis has been published or quoted in MarketWatch, CNBC, Minyanville, The New York Times, Trader Daily, Futures Magazine, and Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, among others. I graduated Summa Cum Laude from Park University and reside in the Kansas City area.
Following are quotes that I find helpful when applied to analysis and trading. Please share your own, as well...
You know my method. It is founded upon the observation of trifles. - Sherlock Holmes
In my methodology, some of the smaller characteristics of a pattern can have much greater impact than the bigger developments that tend to attract mainstream analysis.
Opportunities always look bigger going than coming. - Anonymous
Patience in one's trade selection isn't easy. It's easy to lose your patience when you see how well you might have done by taking one of those trades you refused. And it's easy to lose your money when you start taking those trades, forgetting why you passed on it to begin with.
In skating over thin ice, our safety is in our speed. - Ralph Waldo Emerson
I was attracted originally to trading by its limited exposure to price fluctuation. No market environment is so stable that Emerson's "thin ice" metaphor cannot apply. A military analogy describing the difference between trading and investing is a surgical air strike compared to a massive ground movement.
The trouble with doing things right the first time is that nobody appreciates how difficult it was. - Anonymous
It's easy to take for granted when the market seems to do what is expected of it, as if we willed it to happen. Be mindful of those times, because it spawns complacency.
Success is the ability to go from failure to failure without losing your enthusiasm. - Winston Churchill
Perhaps one of the two greatest differences between all-star traders, and all the rest.
Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat. - Sun Tzu
Success is dependent upon more than one factor. Many traders have been laid low by mastering only one, with such "lucky" timing as to be profitable for a while. But eventually and inevitable, they are reminded that other factors can be impactful.
A ship in harbor is safe, but that's not why the ship is built. - Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin
Trading is not a spectator sport. We're rarely in the crowd, and if not on the field, then only on the bench waiting to go in.
The greater the obstacle the more glory in overcoming it. - Moliere
This relates directly to support or resistance that is chipped away at over lengthy periods. Their break is not assured, but it is difficult to reverse from its break if achieved.
Facts don't cease to exist because they are ignored. - Aldous Huxley
The mind tends to gloss over inconvenient data. Generally this is a big mistake when analyzing a chart.
Most professional (poker) players go on tilt at least once a week. - Mike Caro
There are plenty of similarities between trading and poker playing. It helps to know that even the best poker players - the ones whose faces never reveal any expression - still get flummoxed regularly.
The majority of today's top players have been broke at least twice in the last 15 years. (What usually breaks them is (a) not keeping a big enough bankroll, (b) betting sports, (c) going on tilt, or (d) being cheated. But the top players usually spring back. They tend to play better when they need to win - usually meaning right after going broke and while rebuilding their bankrolls.) - Mike Caro
Another great point about success in poker playing, which translates well to success in trading.
The truth may be puzzling. It may take some work to grapple with. It may be counter-intuitive. It may contradict deeply held prejudices. It may not be consonant with what we desperately want to be true. But our preferences do not determine what's true. - Carl Sagan
The mind can see patterns where they don't exist. It can also see outcomes for which there isn't any historical basis. Be vigilant in policing your own mind to avoid this trap.
Life can only be understood looking backward. It must be lived forward. - Soren Kierkegaard
Other sayings sum up pattern analysis and trading better than this one. Other sayings are more considerate about the complexities of life. But no other saying better entraps the intersection between both.
It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. - Yogi Berra
I know people that have a hard time predicting the past. As tough as it may be to predict a particular situation's outcome, try predicting two or three for the same situation. Then be aware of each as the facts are revealed.
Moments of boredom followed by moments of sheer terror. - Tom McEvoy
This description of poker playing can be all too apt for trading, as well. The trader must be vigilant to remain prepared when the favored conditions come along. Perhaps more difficult is the vigilance required to avoid "forcing" a trade out of boredom or frustration. Some sessions can be like shooting fish in a barrel and the goal is to get all you can. More often the goal is not to give back capital or gains.
If you don't know who you are, the stock market is an expensive place to find out. - George Goodman
Risk-taker? Perfectionist? Greedy? Each characteristic can be handy in the market, at one time or another. The difficult part is in bringing out that part of you when you can use it, and suppressing it otherwise.
If a man can see both sides of a problem, you know that none of his money is tied up in it. - Verda Ross
Never, never, never, never, never, never underestimate how much impact your existing position has on your objectivity. Never.
A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong - not taking the loss - that is what does damage to the pocketbook and to the soul. - Jesse Livermore
You are trying to run across a busy highway, watching intently for your opening. Suddenly you notice an opening, and second thoughts make you jump back to the curb. It is irrelevant whether you would have made it across, or gotten flattened, because at least you're still able to take another shot.
Don't look back, something might be gaining on you. - Satchel Paige, Kansas City Monarchs
Don't rest on your laurels and think you've built enough profit today to take trades you wouldn't otherwise. Don't count your money while you're sitting at the table (someone should write a song).
Never let an opinion get in the way of making money. - Unknown
It's not about the market agreeing with you. It's about you being positioned in the market's direction.
I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. - Wayne Gretzky
It's not about the market agreeing with you. It's about you being positioned in the market's direction. Wow, deja vu.
Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the face. - Mike Tyson
Waiting until that punch before making an alternative plan is far less helpful than already having one in mind. The alternative can be a stop, a stop-and-reverse, or a different pattern interpretation. Depending upon the punch's effect, it can be adding to the position. The alternative plan simply has to existÂ prior to being punched, and preferably prior to being exposed to a punch.
As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain, and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality. - Einstein
Perhaps the original version of Heisenberg's indeterminacy principle. Plagiarism? Homage? I'm not above either when it comes to reminding us that some of history's greatest minds knew better than to expect perfection while awaiting setups to trade.
Imperfect action is better than perfect inaction. - Harry Truman
Among other attributes, trading is requires us to make decisions, to pull the trigger, to execute. It is not coincidental that these are also elements of leadership. And from one of history's strongest leaders comes a reminder to have confidence to act.
I have found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable. - Dwight Eisenhower
The market is not concerned with our well thought out and practiced our strategies. Even when tracking perfectly, it will soon enough switch to an entirely different personality. We move forward in such an ever-changing environment by anticipating a change, and being familiar with different trading styles and tactics.
The fact that a great many people believe something is no guarantee of its truth. - Somerset Maugham
A majority of market participants being positioned similarly generally DOES generally validate their agreement on the facts. But the valuation of those facts is not fixed. And that valuation is true only for the moment that a trade is executed at it -- even by two counter-parties that each believe the underlying facts to be true.