Morning Bias

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES
Bias-up: above  2356.50 2355.00
...would target  2362.50  2361.00
Bias-down: under  2349.00  2347.50
...would target 2344.00  2342.50
Signal status: waiting for trigger FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 21, 2017

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: One econ report Tuesday morning, and it's not reliable for influencing price action. Neither is the pre-open Fed speaker, but noon's Fed speaker may keep things jumy during an otherwise relatively subdued window.

*Neal Kashkari Speaks
8:50 AM ET

PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 AM ET

3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

*Patrick Harker Speaks
12:00 PM ET

4-Week Bill Auction
1:00 PM ET

2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET

Market Wrap (recording & summary)

Trending up from Friday's morning bias environment low at 2337.75 extended higher through each remaining timing window. Fresh session highs were probed all the way through the close. The morning's bias objective to test 2348.25 was pierced by 2 ticks. No "unfinished business above" was left outstanding.

It was a new trend high close, on a Friday. But not until after coming within 3 minutes of the cash session close. Until then, Wednesday's prior high close was being overlapped, if that. And Friday's high was still under Wednesday's high. So, no more new trend high close is required.

Nevertheless, new highs are likely, since trend extremes just don't develop into expirations and/or three-day weekends. NDX performance compares well among major indexes, suggesting that strong hands have a healthy speculative interest. Fresh highs would next target 2366.00.

Friday afternoon's price action aligned with the actively bullish WedEX signal. So, Monday morning's price action is expected to behave bullishly, too. Of course, U.S. markets are closed Monday for the President's Day holiday, and the signal's influence is assured where expiration isn't relevant. But markets tend to allow each other to fulfill their objectives.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

REMINDER: There is no Saturday Review due to the holiday weekend. The chaRTroom will re-open Sunday night for Globex, which trades through 1:00 pm ET Monday. Enjoy the weekend!

Pre-close View… Bias-on.


This morning's no-bias had triggered after testing the 2339.75 bias-down signal. es_021717_pmAnd not by a little. Despite bouncing up to 2343.25, the open's 2337.25 low was attacked to within 2 points.

But the mid-morning dip to 2337.75 held, as was likely, being a no-bias environment.

Price action since exiting the morning's bias environment has trended higher. Of 7 points since the low, 3 points have printed into the afternoon bias environment began lapsing.

Fresh session highs are now attacking yesterday's ~2346.00 close. Unchanged is natural resistance, but that's no excuse for not closing positive. Similarly, the bullish WedEX influence is no protection against a last-minute reaction down.

There will be no hold-long (or hold-short). "Unfinished business above" remains outstanding at this morning's 2348.25 bias-up signal.

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Friday from 1.0680 and extending lower to attack 1.0605 helped to suggest that Thursday's break above 1.0605 was only a excessive corrective bounce. But confirmation is still needed from actually closing under 1.0605. Meanwhile, backing-and-filling up to 1.0680 is possible.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday's shallow gap up to 1245.00 didn't extend as the session fluctuated around the 1242.00 bounce target that was met Thursday. Thursday's close above prior highs wasn't confirmed as a breakout, so extending up to 1259.00 is not assured.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-lower on Friday didn't reject the upside potential still targeting 18.18, which remains intact.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying overnight filled the week-old gap up to 151-28 before reversing back down to the 151-11 bounce limit. Not already resuming the decline by Tuesday's open would suggest a bigger bounce underway.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 52.55-53.55 continued to define the range Friday, the lower-end of which for more than a week has essentially been better represented by 52.75. The eventual breakout's direction remains unreliable.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday's reaction down from EIA extended to fresh lows Friday attacking  2.82. Closing back above 2.93 is still the minimum requirement to reverse momentum up.